Scenario Explorer

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We have almost certainly passed the point where greenhouse gas emission reductions alone can prevent very serious consequences from a changing climate (see Figure 1 below and the “About Scenarios” menu option), as the temperature increase will likely be over 2.0°C in 2050 for any realistic emissions pathway.  The only way to avoid the very serious consequences appears to by proactively reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface until such time as sufficient CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere to reduce the temperature increase to 1.5°C or less without the need for albedo modification.

The “Scenario Explorer” has been designed to help people to understand the assumptions that underlie the temperature increase projections made by climate scientists so that they can make informed decisions about the climate policies that need to be implemented in order to avoid the most serious consequences of global warming. Its focuses is primarily on giving users the ability to estimate the annual amount of sunlight that must be reflected by the atmosphere or the CO2 that must be removed from the atmosphere in order to reach a specific temperature goal. The “SRM & CDR Explorer” allows a specific temperature increase goal to specified (initially set to 1.5°C) and calculates the amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal to meet that goal, while the “Scenario Explorer” allows for the changing of many of the assumptions that are used to calculate the corresponding temperature increase.

This Website makes extensive use of “tooltips”, which are available whenever there is a “dotted underline” under the text.

There are nine menu options:

Home

This page

About Scenarios   

Defines a climate scenario, discusses the data items from a scenario which the model uses, shows several of the data items for 18 scenarios, and has graphs showing the temperature increase projections for 51 scenarios that had 2025 data relatively close to expected 2025 values for CO2 emissions, CO2 PPM, and temperature increase. Please review the charts and graphs in this section as they demonstrate why a temperature increase of over 2.0°C is expected in “mitigation only” scenarios.

Consequences 

This page will discuss the consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C temperature increase target for significant period of time

Background

Discusses some of the rationale for the Scenario Explorer

Instructions 

Instructions on using this Web site

SRM & CDR Explorer   

Allows a specific temperature increase goal (initially set to 1.5°C) and calculates the amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removes to meet that goal

Scenario Explorer   

Allows for the changing of many of the assumptions that are used to calculate the corresponding temperature increase.

What If   

Describes how to user the Scenario Explorer for “What If” analysis; also describes how the model works

About

About the Website


Click here for a description as to how the model works. 

Even if net CO2 emissions peak in 2035 and decline to zero in 2065 (see Figure 1), the temperature increase in 2100 will be about 2.2°C. Reaching the 1.5°C temperature increase target in 2100 would require CO2 capture and storage of 20 GTCO2 per year (about half of the current CO2 annual emissions) in addition to the CO2 capture and storage required for net zero (at a likely prohibative cost of $1-$2 Trillion per year). Even so, the temperature would peak around 2.0°C in 2055. And this does not take into account the sudden (and unexpected) increase in the Earth’s temperature in 2023 or the likely acceleration of the decadal temperature increase.  Table 1 shows all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase without carbon removal and Table 2 shows all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase with carbon removal.


Figure 1.

Table 1 Scenario Summary Without Carbon Removal
Table 2 Scenario Summary With Carbon Removal