|
Home
We have almost certainly passed the point where greenhouse gas emission
reductions alone can prevent very serious consequences from a changing climate
(see Figure 1 below and the “About Scenarios” menu option), as the temperature
increase will likely be over 2.0°C in 2050 for any realistic emissions pathway. The only way to avoid the very
serious consequences appears to by proactively reducing the amount of sunlight
reaching the Earth’s surface until such time as sufficient CO2 can be removed
from the atmosphere to reduce the temperature increase to 1.5°C or less without the need for albedo modification.
The “Scenario Explorer” has been designed to help people to understand the
assumptions that underlie the temperature increase projections made by climate
scientists so that they can make informed decisions about the climate policies
that need to be implemented in order to avoid the most serious consequences of
global warming.
Its focuses is primarily on giving users the ability to estimate
the annual amount of sunlight that must be reflected by the atmosphere or the CO2 that must be removed from
the atmosphere in order to reach a specific temperature goal. The “SRM & CDR Explorer” allows a
specific temperature increase goal to specified (initially set to 1.5°C) and calculates the
amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal to meet
that goal, while the “Scenario Explorer” allows for the changing of many of the
assumptions that are used to calculate the corresponding temperature increase.
This Website makes extensive use of “tooltips”, which are available whenever there is a “dotted underline” under the text.
There are nine menu options:
Home
|
This page
|
About Scenarios
|
Defines a climate scenario, discusses the data items from a scenario which the model
uses, shows several of the data items for 18 scenarios, and has graphs showing
the temperature increase projections for 51 scenarios that had 2025 data
relatively close to expected 2025 values for CO2 emissions, CO2 PPM, and
temperature increase. Please review the charts and
graphs in this section as they demonstrate why a temperature increase of over
2.0°C is expected in “mitigation only” scenarios.
|
Consequences
|
This page will discuss the consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C temperature
increase target for significant period of time
|
Background
|
Discusses some of the rationale for the Scenario Explorer
|
Instructions
|
Instructions on using this Web site
|
SRM & CDR Explorer
|
Allows a specific temperature increase goal (initially set to 1.5°C) and
calculates the amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide
removes to meet that goal
|
Scenario Explorer
|
Allows for the changing of many of the assumptions that are used to calculate
the corresponding temperature increase.
|
What If
|
Describes how to user the Scenario Explorer for “What If” analysis; also
describes how the model works
|
About
|
About the Website
|
Click here for a description as to how the model works.
Even if net CO2 emissions
peak in 2035 and decline to zero in 2065 (see Figure 1), the temperature increase in 2100 will
be about 2.2°C. Reaching the 1.5°C
temperature increase target in 2100 would require CO2 capture and storage of 20
GTCO2 per year (about half of the current CO2 annual emissions) in addition to the CO2 capture and storage required for net zero (at a likely prohibative cost of $1-$2 Trillion per year).
Even so, the temperature would peak around 2.0°C in 2055. And this does
not take into account the sudden (and unexpected) increase in the Earth’s temperature in 2023 or the
likely acceleration of the decadal temperature increase. Table 1 shows
all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase without carbon removal and Table 2 shows
all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase with carbon removal.

Figure 1.

Table 1 Scenario Summary Without Carbon Removal

Table 2 Scenario Summary With Carbon Removal
About Scenarios
A climate scenario is a structured representation of possible future
climate conditions based on different assumptions about greenhouse gas
emissions, socio-economic developments, technological advancements, and policy
actions. Climate scenarios are used to model and analyze potential climate
changes and their impacts, helping policymakers, scientists, and businesses
prepare for various possible futures.
Key Aspects of Climate Scenarios:
-
Emissions Pathways – Different levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over
time, such as low-emission (net-zero), medium-emission, or high-emission
scenarios.
-
Socioeconomic Assumptions – Population growth, economic development, energy
use, and technological progress.
- Climate
Models – Projections of temperature changes, sea level rise, extreme weather
events, and other climate impacts.
- Policy
and Mitigation Strategies – Possible responses, such as carbon pricing,
renewable energy adoption, or geoengineering interventions.
Examples of Climate Scenarios:
- IPCC’s
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): These combine socio-economic
narratives with climate policies to explore different futures (e.g., SSP1-1.9
for aggressive mitigation, SSP5-8.5 for high fossil fuel use).
-
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Used in past IPCC reports,
showing different levels of radiative forcing by 2100 (e.g., RCP2.6 for strong
mitigation, RCP8.5 for high emissions).
-
Net-Zero Scenarios: Models from organizations like the IEA (International
Energy Agency) that project pathways to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
(The above is from ChatGPT)
|
This model uses the scenario data items specified in Table 1 below.
 Table 1.
The model uses the above data to calculate the data items shown in Table 2.

Table 2.
Most of the scenario data was obtained from either the IPCC AR6 Report
or from the En-ROADS global climate simulator. For the former, data was based on model runs from
over five years ago so their 2025 values may be off significantly. The table
below displays several datum from a number of their scenarios. The “AR6” scenarios are an average of
5-10 scenarios which had roughly the indicated temperature increase in 2100. The
“SSP” scenarios are the average of the scenarios with that name (usually two
scenarios). Note the heave reliance on CCS to meet many of the temperature
targets. Also, all of the “more plausible” scenarios project a temperature
increase close to or over 2.0 °C in 2050. (Note
that total CO2 emissions were about 41.6 GTCO2 in 2024 were about and are not
expected to change much in 2025. In 2025 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is
expected to hit about 427 PPM and the average global temperature increase will
likely be at least 1.5°C. Keet this in mind when reviewing any of these
scenarios.)

Table 3.
Of the roughly 450 scenarios in the IPCC database only 51 had 2025 data
relatively close to expected 2025 values for CO2 emissions, CO2 PPM, and
temperature increase. (Note that the average temperature change per decade is
about 0.26°C.) For most of the scenarios the temperature increase exceeded 2.0°C
in 2050. (see Figure 1).

Figure 1
If Dr. James Hansen is right and there was a 0.20 W/m-2 albedo change in 2023
and the temperature increase per decade turns out to be 0.36 °C, then the
temperature increase of all of the scenarios exceeds 2.0°C in 2050 and exceeds
2.5°C in 2100

Figure 2
Figure 3 shows the expected temperature increase for scenarios where net CO2
emissions are reduced to 0 (staring in 2025) in the specified year, both with
and without an albedo change of 0.20 W/m-2 in 2025 and temperature increase of
0.36°C per decade.

Figure 3
|
Consequences
Many climate scientists believe that there will be very serious consequences
if the global average temperature increase exceeds 1.5°C for a significant period of time, which it is almost certainly going to do. This web page will discuss the possible consequence of overshooting the 1.5°C target, which is almost certainly going to occur.
Weakening Ocean Current Patterns Reduce Global Carbon Uptake, Costing Trillions of Dollars
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 12 January 2025)
The AMOC is a large, intertwined system of ocean currents that transports heat throughout the Atlantic Ocean, playing a key role in the
regulation of ocean temperatures and global climate patterns. By quantifying the AMOC's impact on ocean carbon uptake, this study shows that
a weaker AMOC would reduce the ocean's ability to absorb CO2, thus resulting in higher levels of atmospheric CO2 and accelerated warming globally.
This weakness could result in trillions of dollars in additional economic damage, including impacts from heatwaves, droughts, fiercer storms,
additional infrastructure reinforcement, strain on food systems, and insurance costs. The culmination of changes is predicted to raise the ‘social cost’ of
carbon by approximately 1%. Previously perceived economic "benefits" of AMOC-related cooling are thus disputed when global impacts are considered, demonstrating
that overall AMOC weakening would result in a net cost to society.
Full paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2419543122
|
Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes
Climate change alters the climatic suitability of croplands, likely shifting the spatial distribution and diversity of global food crop production.
Analyses of future potential food crop diversity have been limited to a small number of crops. Here we project geographical shifts in the climatic niches of
30 major food crops under 1.5–4 °C global warming and assess their impact on current crop production and potential food crop diversity across global croplands.
We found that in low-latitude regions, 10–31% of current production would shift outside the climatic niche even under 2 °C global warming, increasing to 20–48%
under 3 °C warming. Concurrently, potential food crop diversity would decline on 52% (+2 °C) and 56% (+3 °C) of global cropland.
However, potential diversity would increase in mid to high latitudes, offering opportunities for climate change adaptation.
These results highlight substantial latitudinal differences in the adaptation potential and vulnerability of the global food system under global warming.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-025-01135-w
|
The Paris
Climate Accord if 2015 set 2°C as the level of warming that would lead to unacceptably severe consequences, affecting
ecosystems, economies, and human societies worldwide. Some of the
likely impacts include:
1. Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters
- More
frequent and intense heatwaves leading to higher mortality rates,
especially in tropical and densely populated regions.
-
Increased frequency and intensity of storms, hurricanes, and cyclones
due to warmer ocean temperatures.
- More
severe droughts in arid and semi-arid regions, reducing agricultural
yields and increasing water scarcity.
-
Worsening wildfires, particularly in Mediterranean, Californian, and
Australian climates.
2. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts
- Sea levels could rise by 0.5–1 meter (or more in extreme cases), leading
to increased flooding in coastal cities like New York, Miami, Jakarta, and
Mumbai.
- More frequent and severe coastal erosion and storm surges, displacing
millions of people.
- Loss
of low-lying island nations (e.g., Maldives, Tuvalu) due to permanent
inundation.
-
Initiate loss of ice from the Antarctic
and Greenland ice sheets that would likely lead to rates of sea level rise
exceeding one or more meters per century
3. Food and Water Scarcity
-
Declining crop yields due to extreme heat, drought, and changing
rainfall patterns, especially in major grain-producing regions.
- Increased risk of global food supply shocks, causing price spikes
and exacerbating hunger and malnutrition.
-
Freshwater shortages due to glacier melt (Himalayas, Andes) and lower
river flows (Nile, Mekong, Colorado).
4. Ecosystem Collapse and Biodiversity
Loss
- Widespread coral reef die-offs (over 99% of reefs could be
lost due to ocean acidification and warming).
-
Tropical rainforest degradation, especially in the Amazon, leading to
reduced carbon sequestration.
- Mass
extinction of species, as ecosystems struggle to adapt to rapid climate
shifts.
-
Disruptions in fisheries, with fish stocks collapsing due to ocean
warming and acidification.
5. Human Health and Disease
-
Higher mortality rates due to heat-related illnesses, especially among
vulnerable populations.
- Spread of tropical diseases (malaria, dengue) into
previously temperate zones.
- Increased respiratory illnesses from worsening air
pollution and wildfire smoke.
- Rising mental health issues due to climate-induced
displacement and economic instability.
6. Economic and Social Instability
-
Climate refugees: Hundreds of millions of people may be forced to
migrate due to rising seas, drought, and failed agriculture.
- Increased conflicts over resources, especially in
water-stressed regions (Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa).
- Rising insurance and infrastructure costs, making some
areas uninsurable.
-
Potential economic recessions or collapses in countries heavily reliant
on climate-sensitive industries (agriculture, tourism).
7. Potential Tipping Points
-
Amazon rainforest collapse, shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon
source.
-
Thawing permafrost, releasing massive amounts of methane, which could
trigger further warming.
-
Disruption of ocean currents (like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation, AMOC), causing extreme weather shifts in Europe and North America.
- Ultimate loss of much of the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, leading to sea level rise of order 10 meters of sea level rise over several centuries.
Conclusion
A 2°C+ warming scenario is widely
considered catastrophic, with
exponential risks beyond human control. It would
increase the urgency for
large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), adaptation, and potentially risky
geoengineering measures like Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
(from ChatGPT.with
a few additions)
|
Background
The Scenario Explorer has been designed to allow people to both (1) review and develop
greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and (2) see the requirements to meet a temperature
increase target for both carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management techniques.
In the "SRM & CDR Explorer" mode multiple scenarios can be both compared and contrasted graphically
(see Figure 1) while the "Review" mode displays both all of the temperature (and
some cost) calculations involved in single scenario (see Figure 2) and also some
graphs relating the scenario to sets of other scenarios (see Figure 3.). Many of
the values used in making the calculations can be changed in the "Input" mode (see
Figure 4) and additional values can be changed in the "Deep Dive " mode (see Figure
5).
|
|
One of the main reasons for developing this model is that, while global circulation models have done a relatively good job in predicting past temperatures changes
(see Figure 6), the climate system is
beginning to behave in unpredictable ways and these models likely underestimate the future yearly temperature increases. (See "Are general circulation models obsolete?") For example:
|
- Rate of temperature incease per decade (in the IPCC data the rate is 0.26°C but Dr James Hansen expects it to be 0.36°C)
- Permanent temperature acceleration
- Accelerated natural emissions
- Permafrost thaw rate
- Peat
- Forest fires
- Forest dieback
- Surface waters
- Soils
- Natural CH4 emissions increasing faster than expected
- Albedo changes (clouds and surface reflectivity)
- The land and ocean sinks are decreasing faster than expected
|
 | | Figure 5. Model Observations (Click image to enlarge it) |
|
Other things to consider
- Since greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase, the IPCC scenarios which have emission reductions before 2025 should be viewed skeptically.
- Models expected CH4 emissions to decrease as aerosol also decrease, cancelling each other out. The temperature will increase faster than expected if either aerosols decrease faster than expected as coal emissions are eliminated and/or CH4 emissions decline less rapidly than expected
Since the world's nations have failed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the past 30 years,
it is very unlikely that that the temperature increase can be limited to 1.5 °C by 2050 and it is possible
that the temperature increase will exceed 2.0°C by 2050. As a result mitigating GHG emissions as rapidly as fast as politically possible is not sufficent.
That leaves two options for suplementing mitigation efforts in order to limit the temperature increase -
(1) remove CO2 from the atmosphere when it becomes publically affordable or
(2) intervene in the climate system by reducing the Earth's albedo to prevent very serious harm.
In order to choose the best option a consensus needs to be reached on the following:
- For planning purposes, what would be a good GHG emissions scenario to use?
- Given the above emission pathway, what GHG emissions should be expected from feedbacks?
- The Earth's temperature increased at a rate of about 0.18°C per decade from 1970 t0 2020.
Many of the IPCC scenarios projected that the temperature would increase at a rate of about 0.26°C per decade for the next 20 years.
And Dr. James Hansen expects a 0.36°C temperature increase per decade. What is a good value to use?
- What is a reasonable estimate of carbon dioxide removal costs and the amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere in 2050?
- What is a reasonable estimate of the temperature increase in 2050 and 2100 on a "mitigation only" strategy?
- What are the expected costs of the above for sea level rise, natural disasters, mitigation, carbon dioxide removal, etc. to limit the temperature increase? Reductions to GDP?
- How much carbon dioxide removal might be implemented before CO2 emissions are reduced by 80%?
- How much carbon dioxide removal might be needed before 2050? before 2100?
- There will also be very significant cost from both sea level rise and natural disasters. Good estimates for the following for the years 2022-2100 are therefore needed:
- Expected sea level rise per degree of warming
- Expected cost per foot of sea level rise
- Expected cost of weather-related natural disasters per degree of warming
This model was created to assist in answering the above questions. The model itself is relatively simple. The following assumptions were made:
- 1. Emissions from natural feedbacks depend on the temperature increase in 2100
- 2. The amount of CO2 added the atmosphere depends primarily on net CO2 emissions (Anthropogenic + Feedbacks - CDR)
- 3. The radiative forcing from CO2 depends on the atmospheric concentration of CO2
- 4. Emissions of CH2 and N2O and the radiative forcing of both aerosols and all other 'climate forcing elements' can be estimated based on the cumulative CO2 emissions and removals through 2100
- 5. The annual temperature increase in a given year depends on the total radiative forcing (from CO2, CH4, N2O, Other GHGs, Aerosols, and Albedo) and the year
Values for emissions from natural feedbacks were obtained from IPCC AR6 documentation. Formulas for calculating values for the other assumptions were derived by analyzing data from other climate models.
|
The following three tables are very rough cut at an attempt to "compare and contrast" "mitigation only" scenarios with an "SRM" scenario.
Suggestions welcome!
|
Table of impacts/tipping points |
Amazon Tropical Rain Forest |
Now a carbon source. Used to sequester xxx. Now emits. Tipping point For
Savannah. Primarily due to deforestation with cc exacerbating 2050 and 2100. |
Tropical Coral Reefs |
|
Sea level rise |
|
Temperature Increase |
|
GDP |
|
Feedbacks |
|
Ocean acidification |
|
AMOC |
|
Food Supply |
Disruptions to the food supply could be substantial due to changing storm tracks and monsoon timing and character
|
Comparison of Scenarios |
|
|
2050 |
2100 |
|
|
"Mitigation only"
SSP XXXX |
"Mitigation only"
SSP YYYY |
Mitigation and SRM |
"Mitigation only"
SSP XXXX |
"Mitigation only"
SSP YYYY |
Mitigation and SRM |
Amazon |
Cumulative
CO2 Emissions |
XXXX GT CO2 |
|
XXXX GT CO2 |
XXXX GT CO2 |
|
XXXX GT CO2 |
Tropical Coral Reefs |
Percent Die off |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sea level rise |
Feet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Temperature Increase |
°C |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cost of natural disasters |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Feedbacks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ocean acidification |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AMOC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Food Supply |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analysis of impacts/tipping points - What happens if "mitigation only" vs climate
intervention with some mitigation? |
Amazon Tropical Rain Forest |
The Amazon turns to savanna sooner (but still does with intervention) |
Tropical Coral Reefs |
Tropical Coral reefs die sooner (but they still die with intervention)
|
Sea level rise |
Catastrophic sea level rise occurs sooner (but still happens with intervention) |
Cost of natural disasters |
With "mitigation only" higher costs of natural disasters (more famines, floods,
droughts, etc.)(and sea level rise) this century |
GDP |
Larger reduction in GDP with "mitigation only" |
Feedbacks |
More feedbacks from natural emissions with "mitigation only" (hence a larger
requirement for carbon dioxide removal to meet a temperature target) |
Ocean acidification |
catastrophic ocean acidification will be the same |
AMOC |
|
Food Supply |
|
Instructions
The Scenario Explorer allows a user to explore scenarios in two "modes"
|
1.
|
SRM & CDR Explorer |
Allows multiple scenarios to be selected. Displays graphs for the 'NetCO2 Emissions',
'SRM Requirement', 'CDR Requirement', and 'Scenario Temperature Increase' for the
selected scenarios.
|
2.
|
Scenario Explorer |
Allows for the displaying of the temperature (and some cost) calculations involved
in single scenario and also some graphs relating the scenario to sets of other scenarios.
Many of the values used in making the calculations (e.g., CO2 emissions, total feedbacks,
'aggressiveness' of three non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, etc.) can be changed.
|
The ‘Scenario Explorer’ allows users to both explore a variety of greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios and to adjust many of the assumptions that are used in the various
calculations. An analysis of the results of global circulation models were used
to derive formulas that can be used to (1) estimate the amount of the annual CO2
emissions that remain in the atmosphere and (2) calculate a factor that can be used
to estimate the temperature increase based on the total radiative forcing. The Explorer
uses these formulas plus formulas that are based on “standard climate change equations”
(e.g., the relationship between CO2 PPM an CO2 radiative forcing) for all of the
calculations.
|
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the main driving force for global warming. When
you change the value in any drop down list, the program will recalculate the temperature
change for each 5-year period.
|
Many other factors also affect the global temperature change, and this model allows
the user to specify values for most of them. These factors can be organized into
three main categories: those affecting atmospheric CO2, other greenhouse gas emissions,
and those that affect the Earth's ability to reflect the incoming sunlight (albedo).
You can input values for those factors after checking the corresponding checkbox
under the "Input" label above (CO2, RF,and SRM respectively).You can view the
calculated values for those factors by checking the corresponding checkbox under
the "Display" label above (CO2, RF,and SRM respectively). (Note that clicking
the "SRM" checkbox allows the user to specifty either an annual target
tempearature or and an annual amout of SRM.)
|
Check one of the "cost" checkboxes to enter or view the carbon dioxide removal costs.
The "CO2e" checkbox is use to display the "CO2 equivalents" for the various greenhouse
gases. The checkboxes in the "Basic" row are used to determine if the most important
factors are shown or whether more specific factors are shown (e.g., "Carbon dioxide
removal" vs. "CCs", "DAC", "Afforestation ", etc.)
|
Factors other than greenhouse gas emissions include:
|
- Feedbacks. These include CO2e emissions from permafrost thawing, surface waters,
forest dieback, peat, etc. The model defaults to using 7GtCO2 in 2100 per ℃ of warming
(e.g. this would result in 14 GtCO2e of emissions in 2100 if the temperature increased
by 2℃ in 2100). Alternatively, the user can specify values for specific years. Note
that the 2025 value is about 5GTCO2e.
- Airborne fraction. This specifies the percentage of total CO2 emissions (including
feedbacks) minus CO2 removals that are added to the atmosphere. The current model
calculated this value. A future version will allow the user to specify the
yearly values.
- Temperature spike. The global temperature unexpectedly increased significantly in
2023 and again in 2024. Climate scientists have not yet concluded whether this is
due to natural variability or to a change to the climate system.
- Mitigation'aggressiveness' for other GHG emissions. To simplify the specifications
for the GHGs other than CO2, 10 "mitigation scenarios" were developed based on the
corresponding emission trajectories in a set of ssps - one each for the radiative
forcing for CH4, N2O, and aerosols, and an "Other" for all GHGs. An 'aggressiveness'
of 1 uses the lowest amount mitigated, while a value of 10 uses the highest mitigation
amount. Values between 1 and 10 use a proportional value. Users can specify the
'aggressiveness' for each of CH4, N2O, aerosol, and other. If no value is specified
a "Default" value (calculated base on the cumulative CO2 emissions) will be used.
These radiative forcing amounts can be overridden by specifying specific yearly
values on the "Advanced RF" portion on the web form.
- Albedo. A change to the Earth's albedo was incorporated into the temperature increase
calculated by the global circulation models whose data was used to calculate the
temperature increase in this model. It appears likely that the global circulation
models underestimated the albedo change. The additional albedo needed to compensate
for the underestimate can be entered with the other "RF" group factors.
|
If the user "hovers" a mouse over most of the text on the form an explanation or
definition of the corresponding text will be displayed. In addition, clicking the
"expand" icon to the left of any "factor" will display its definition, how it was
derived (input or calculation), and (when applicable) additional information about
the factor- historical and projected values, useful references, etc. If the color
of the "expand" icon is green, up to three graphs of for the corresponding
item's values will be displayed: with the values for the various SSPs, mitigation
'aggressiveness' pathways, and/or emissions scenarios from other organizations
(International Energy Agency (IEA), MIT, and/or Climate Action Tracker).
|
Many other factors also affect the global temperature change, and this model allows
the user to specify values for most of them. These factors can be organized into
three main categories: those affecting atmospheric CO2, other greenhouse gays emissions,
and those that affect the Earth's ability to reflect the incoming sunlight (albedo).
You can input values for those factors after checking the corresponding checkbox
under the "Input" label above (CO2, RF, and SRM respectively).You can view the
calculated values for those factors by checking the corresponding checkbox under
the "Display" label above (CO2, RF, and SRM respectively).
|
SRM & CDR Explorer |
Click here to view instructions for using the SRM & CDR Explorer |
|
|
Select the Graphs to Show |
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) |
|
|
|
Most of the text on the Web page has popup text associated with it. For example, if you hover your mouse over the text “Select the Graphs to Show”, a popup window will be displayed.
In some instances additional information can also be displayed by clicking on the text, and this will always be indicated in the popup. Note that additional popup windows and additional information will be added in future releases.
Click here to view a PDF that describes the"SRM & CDR Explorer" mode.
|
|
|
|
When the “Scenario Explorer” tab is first selected, data for a "Moderate" CO2 emissions pathway is shown in the accompanying graphs.
The emissions for this pathway are roughly in line with the CO2 emissions projected by major organizations (e.g., IEA, MIT, etc.) based on
historical emissions and likely policies that the World's nations will implement in the coming years (where CO2 emissions are not expected
drop much in the next decade or so). Note that the linear decline to emissions 5 GTCO2 is likely optimistic. This tab also assumes that the user is interested
in the efforts that would be required to reach a specific temperature increase target in 2100. The default value for this is 1.5°C,
and can be changed by checking the "Temp" checkbox to the right. Based on the selected temperature increase target the program calculates the
amount of either solar radiation management (SRM) or carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that would be required meet the target temperature increase.
(Note that for CDR the starting year defaults to 2045 and can be adjusted by checking the "CDR" checkbox to the right. There are over 30 graphs for displaying the
data associated with the emissions pathway and these can be viewed by checking the various checkboxes under the "Select the Graphs to Show" text to the right.
To compare the data for this "Moderate" CO2 emissions pathway to other projections and scenarios, click the "Down Arrow" to the above left to display the available scenarios. Most of the scenario data was
obtained from either the IPCC AR6 Report
or from the En-ROADS global climate simulator. For the former, data was based on model runs from over five years ago so their 2025 values may be off significantly.
(Total CO2 emissions were about 41.6 GTCO2 in 2024 were about and are not expected to change much in 2025. In 2025 the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is expected to hit about 427 PPM and the average global temperature increase will likely be at least 1.5°C. Keep this in mind when reviewing any of these scenarios.)
|
|
|
|
Net Anthro. CO2 Emssions (GTCO2) | |
| | | | | | | |
Total Anthro. CO2 (GtCO2) | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | Total Other CO2e (GtCO2e) | |
| | | |
| | Sea Level Rise Costs ($B/Yr) | |
| | | | | |
Carbon Removal Cost Per Ton ($/Ton) | |
| | Carbon Removal Cost ($B/Yr) | |
| | Carbon Removal (Temp Goal) (GtCO2) | |
| | | |
Scenario Explorer: | Moderate | Click here to view instructions for using the Scenario Explorer |
|
|
Gross Anthro. CO2 | GTCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Anthropogenic (human caused) CO2 emissions, including those from the burning of fossil fuels, manufacturing cement, and land use changes
- User can enter values
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | | This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to other 2050 scenarios. |
---|
|
| |
|
|
|
Carbon Rmvs (Scen) | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
- User can enter values
|
|
Crb Cpt&Str (CCS) | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- CCS Carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a collection of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes before they enter the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be utilized or stored in the ground.
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
Today, CCS projects are storing almost 45 million tons of CO2 every year, which is about the amount of CO2 emissions created by 10 million passenger cars. Capture generally takes place at large stationary sources of CO2, like power plants or industrial plants that make cement, steel, and chemicals. Most current carbon capture projects use a liquid to chemically remove the CO2 before it goes out the smokestack, but several new types of capture processes are under development.
The captured CO2 gas is then compressed so it becomes liquid-like and transported to a storage site, generally through a pipeline. Ship transport is more expensive than using pipelines, but it is being considered in both Europe and Japan. Once at the storage site, the CO2 is pumped more than 2,500 feet down wells into geological formations like used-up oil and gas reservoirs, as well as formations that contain unusable, salty water. (https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/carbon-capture)
|
|
|
Dir Air Capt (DAC) | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Direct air capture (DAC) includes a suite of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere using chemical or physical processes
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
Direct Air Capture (DAC) is a technology designed to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂)
directly from the atmosphere to help mitigate climate change. Unlike other
methods of carbon capture, which focus on emissions from industrial sources, DAC
works by capturing CO₂ that is already in the air.
Here’s how DAC generally works:
- Air Intake: Large fans or other methods pull ambient air into a
system.
- CO₂ Capture: The air passes through a chemical solution or
solid sorbent that binds with the carbon dioxide molecules. There are two
primary types of DAC technologies:
- Liquid-based DAC: Uses chemical solvents that capture CO₂ when
the air passes through.
- Solid-based DAC: Uses solid materials or filters to absorb CO₂.
- CO₂ Release: The captured CO₂ is then isolated from the
material it is bound to, usually through heating or applying a vacuum.
- Storage or Utilization: The CO₂ is either stored underground
(in geological formations like depleted oil fields or deep saline aquifers) or
used in products like synthetic fuels or building materials.
DAC is seen as a potentially important tool for reducing atmospheric CO₂,
especially in cases where it’s not feasible to reduce emissions at the source.
While the technology is still in development, several pilot projects and
commercial operations are working to scale DAC and make it more efficient and
cost-effective. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
Afforestation | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Afforestation is the process of planting trees in an area where there were none previously, with the goal of creating a new forest or woodland. It is a key strategy in combating climate change, as trees absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, helping to reduce the overall concentration of greenhouse gases. (Source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Afforestation Works:
- Selecting Land: The first step is to identify suitable land for
planting trees. This could be land that was once forested but has been cleared
(e.g., for agriculture) or land that has never been forested.
- Choosing Species: The right species of trees are selected based
on the climate, soil type, and the purpose of the afforestation project (e.g.,
carbon sequestration, biodiversity enhancement).
- Planting Trees: The trees are planted, and in some cases, the
soil is prepared to ensure better growth conditions. This can involve removing
invasive species or improving soil quality.
- Ongoing Maintenance: Regular monitoring and care are required
to ensure the trees grow successfully, which may involve watering, controlling
pests, or protecting them from wildfires.
Benefits of Afforestation:
- Carbon Sequestration: As trees grow, they absorb and store
carbon dioxide, helping mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Biodiversity: Afforestation can restore ecosystems and create
habitats for wildlife, enhancing biodiversity.
- Soil Protection: Forests help prevent soil erosion, improve
water retention, and contribute to healthier soil by adding organic matter.
- Water Cycle Regulation: Trees play a role in the local water
cycle, influencing rainfall patterns and groundwater levels.
- Economic Benefits: Forests can provide timber, fuel, and other
resources that benefit local communities economically.
However, afforestation must be carefully planned. If done inappropriately (e.g.,
planting non-native species or on ecologically sensitive land), it can have
negative environmental impacts, such as disrupting local ecosystems or reducing
water availability for other plants and animals. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
Mineralization | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Mineralization is a process in which carbon dioxide (CO2) is chemically transformed into stable mineral compounds, such as carbonates, through natural or engineered reactions. This is a form of carbon capture and storage (CCS), aimed at mitigating climate change by permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere or industrial processes. (source: ChatGP
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Mineralization Works:
-
Capture of CO₂: CO₂ is captured either directly from the air
(via direct air capture) or from industrial emissions (e.g., power plants).
-
Reaction with Minerals: The captured CO₂ is then exposed to
naturally occurring minerals that contain metal cations (like calcium,
magnesium, or iron). These minerals, such as olivine or basalt, can chemically
react with CO₂ in the presence of water.
A common reaction might be:
CO2+CaSiO3(forsterite)→CaCO3(calcite)+SiO2(silica)
This converts CO₂ into solid carbonates (like calcium carbonate, or CaCO₃),
which are stable and non-toxic.
-
Storage: The resulting solid mineral carbonates are stable and
can be stored safely for millions of years, essentially locking away CO₂ from
the atmosphere in a permanent form.
Types of Mineralization:
-
Enhanced Weathering: This involves accelerating the natural
weathering process, where minerals in rocks slowly react with CO₂. By breaking
down rocks more quickly (often through mechanical or chemical means), the rate
at which CO₂ is captured and mineralized can be increased.
-
In situ Mineralization: This refers to the natural process of
mineralization that occurs underground. CO₂ is injected into geological
formations, such as basalt rock formations, where it reacts with the minerals
present to form carbonates.
-
Ex situ Mineralization: This is a more engineered process,
where CO₂ is captured, transported, and then reacted with minerals in a
controlled environment, typically in reactors or mines, before being stored.
Benefits of Mineralization:
- Permanent CO₂ Storage: The mineralized carbonates are stable
for millions of years, offering a long-term solution to climate change.
- Natural Process: Mineralization mimics natural processes,
making it a relatively safe and predictable way of storing carbon.
- Scalability: There is potential for scaling this process to
large volumes, as many types of minerals on Earth can react with CO₂.
- Economic Value: The byproducts, such as carbonates, can have
commercial uses (e.g., in construction materials, agriculture, or even as a
component of cement), potentially offsetting some of the costs.
Challenges:
- Speed: Natural mineralization is a slow process. Research is
ongoing to find ways to speed up the chemical reactions.
- Energy Intensity: Some methods of mineralization, especially ex
situ processes, may require significant energy inputs.
- Geological Site Availability: Suitable geological sites for in
situ mineralization may not be available everywhere, and transporting CO₂ to
these sites can be costly.
Mineralization holds great promise as a long-term, stable solution for reducing
atmospheric CO₂ levels and combating climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
Agricult Soil Carb | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Agricultural soil carbon refers to the carbon stored in the soil as part of the soil organic matter (SOM), which includes plant roots, decomposing plant and animal residues, and microbial biomass. This carbon plays a critical role in maintaining soil health, fertility, and structure, and can contribute significantly to mitigating climate change if managed effectively. (source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
ypes of Agricultural Soil Carbon:
- Soil Organic Carbon (SOC): This is the carbon component of soil
organic matter, derived from plant and animal residues that have decomposed in
the soil.
- Soil Inorganic Carbon (SIC): This is carbon that is bound in
mineral forms, like carbonates (e.g., calcium carbonate), found in certain
soils.
Most carbon stored in soils is in the organic form, and it is a key factor in
determining soil health and productivity.
How Agricultural Soil Carbon Works:
Soil carbon is part of the carbon cycle, where plants capture
atmospheric CO₂ during photosynthesis and then incorporate it into their
tissues. When plants die, this carbon is transferred into the soil through root
systems or through the decomposition of organic matter. Soil organisms (like
bacteria, fungi, and earthworms) break down this organic material, which
contributes to carbon being stored in the soil.
Key processes that influence soil carbon storage include:
- Photosynthesis: Plants absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere and
convert it into organic carbon compounds.
- Decomposition: As plant residues decompose, carbon is either
released back into the atmosphere as CO₂ or retained in the soil as part of
organic matter.
- Soil Formation and Erosion: The way soil is formed or disturbed
can affect the amount of carbon stored in the soil.
Benefits of Agricultural Soil Carbon:
- Carbon Sequestration: Soils can store large amounts of carbon
over long periods, effectively acting as carbon sinks, which helps to reduce
atmospheric CO₂ and mitigate climate change.
- Soil Fertility and Productivity: Soil organic carbon is
essential for soil fertility, as it improves soil structure, water retention,
nutrient availability, and microbial activity, all of which contribute to better
crop yields.
- Resilience to Drought: Higher soil carbon content can improve
the soil's ability to retain water, making crops more resilient to drought
conditions.
- Improved Soil Structure: The organic matter in soil improves
its structure, reducing compaction and enhancing aeration, which is beneficial
for plant growth.
- Biodiversity: Healthy soils with abundant carbon tend to
support a diverse range of microorganisms, which contribute to nutrient cycling
and soil health.
Practices for Increasing Agricultural Soil Carbon:
Several sustainable agricultural practices can increase soil carbon storage,
including:
- Cover Cropping: Planting crops that cover the soil during
fallow periods can prevent erosion and increase organic matter inputs to the
soil.
- Reduced Tillage: Minimizing tillage reduces soil disturbance,
preserving soil structure and preventing the release of carbon stored in the
soil.
- Agroforestry: Integrating trees and shrubs into agricultural
landscapes increases carbon sequestration through both above-ground biomass and
soil organic carbon.
- Crop Rotation: Growing a variety of crops instead of
monocultures helps improve soil health and increase carbon retention.
- Organic Amendments: Adding organic materials like compost,
manure, or biochar can increase soil carbon levels.
- Pasture Management: Rotational grazing and improving pasture
management can enhance carbon storage in grasslands.
Challenges and Considerations:
- Soil Type and Climate: The potential for soil carbon
sequestration varies by soil type, climate, and land management practices. Some
soils are naturally more conducive to storing carbon than others.
- Soil Erosion: Erosion can deplete soil carbon by washing away
topsoil, where most organic carbon is stored.
- Long-Term Commitment: Soil carbon sequestration takes time and
requires sustained management practices over years to decades.
- Balance with Crop Production: Some practices that increase soil
carbon may reduce immediate crop yields, so farmers must balance carbon storage
with their economic needs.
Soil Carbon in the Context of Climate Change:
Agricultural soils have the potential to be a significant part of climate change
mitigation strategies. If managed effectively, they can sequester vast amounts
of carbon and help offset emissions from other sectors. However, the permanence
of carbon stored in soils is subject to management practices, land use changes,
and natural factors like climate shifts.
Overall, increasing soil carbon content is a win-win for agriculture and climate
mitigation, improving soil health and supporting sustainable farming practices
while contributing to global carbon reduction efforts. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
Biochar | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or burned.(source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Biochar Is Made:
- Feedstock Selection: Biochar is made from organic materials
like crop residues, wood chips, manure, or other biomass. The type of feedstock
can influence the properties of the biochar.
- Pyrolysis: The feedstock is heated in a sealed container
(called a pyrolysis reactor) in the absence of oxygen, typically at temperatures
between 350°C and 700°C (662°F and 1292°F). This process breaks down the organic
material and results in solid biochar, along with gases and oils, which can be
captured and used as energy or in other processes.
- Cooling and Processing: The biochar is cooled, and any
remaining gases are captured for energy production. The resulting biochar can be
ground to different particle sizes depending on its intended use.
Properties of Biochar:
- High Carbon Content: Biochar is rich in carbon, often
comprising over 70% of its composition, making it a stable form of carbon
storage.
- Porous Structure: Biochar has a highly porous structure, which
increases its surface area and allows it to retain water and nutrients.
- Stability: Biochar is stable in soil for hundreds or even
thousands of years, making it an effective way to sequester carbon and reduce
atmospheric CO₂.
Benefits of Biochar:
- Carbon Sequestration: Biochar is a form of carbon
capture and storage (CCS). When it is applied to soils, it locks away
carbon for long periods, helping to mitigate climate change by removing CO₂ from
the atmosphere.
- Soil Improvement: Adding biochar to soil can enhance its
fertility by improving its structure, water retention, and nutrient-holding
capacity. This makes it particularly valuable in soils that are degraded or have
poor organic matter content.
- Enhanced Plant Growth: The porous structure of biochar helps
soil retain moisture and nutrients, which can improve plant growth, especially
in areas with drought conditions or poor soil quality.
- Soil pH Regulation: Biochar can help balance soil pH,
especially in acidic soils, making the soil more favorable for plant growth.
- Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Biochar has been shown
to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) from soils, both of
which are potent greenhouse gases.
- Waste Management: Biochar can be produced from agricultural,
forestry, or industrial waste products, providing a sustainable way to recycle
biomass that would otherwise be discarded or burned.
- Water Filtration: Due to its porous nature, biochar can be used
for water filtration, removing contaminants like heavy metals and organic
compounds from water.
Applications of Biochar:
- Agriculture: Biochar is widely used as a soil amendment to
improve soil health, fertility, and crop yields. It is especially beneficial for
soils with low organic matter or poor structure.
- Carbon Sequestration: Applied to soils, biochar serves as a
long-term carbon sink, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Waste-to-Energy: The pyrolysis process used to create biochar
also generates bio-oils and gases that can be used as renewable energy sources,
making the production of biochar part of a circular economy.
- Water Treatment: Biochar is being explored as an effective
material for filtering contaminants from water, as it can adsorb toxins and
other pollutants.
- Building Materials: Some biochars, due to their properties, are
being experimented with as an additive to construction materials like cement and
concrete, providing both environmental and practical benefits.
Challenges and Considerations:
- Energy Requirements: The pyrolysis process requires energy, and
while some of this energy can be captured and used, the overall energy balance
of biochar production depends on the technology and feedstocks used.
- Scale of Production: While biochar has significant potential,
scaling up production to a level that makes a global impact on climate change
requires overcoming logistical and economic challenges.
- Feedstock Availability: The availability and sustainability of
biomass feedstocks can limit biochar production. It’s important to ensure that
feedstocks are sourced in an environmentally responsible manner without
competing with food production or causing deforestation.
- Potential Soil Effects: While biochar can improve soil quality,
the effects can vary based on the type of soil, the specific biochar used, and
the amount applied. In some cases, improper use may have negative effects, such
as altering soil nutrient balances.
Biochar and Climate Change:
Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration
and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the
soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO₂
levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it
can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste
materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or
burned.
In summary, biochar has the potential to provide multiple environmental
benefits, from improving soil health and agricultural productivity to serving as
a long-term carbon sink that helps mitigate climate change. However, it requires
careful management and scaling to fully realize its potential.
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
Ocenanic Removal | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Oceanic removal (or ocean carbon removal - mCDR)) refers to strategies and technologies aimed at removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it in the ocean. The ocean is a major carbon sink, absorbing about 25% of global CO2 emissions. However, oceanic removal focuses on enhancing this natural process or directly removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in ocean ecosystems or geological formations beneath the ocean. (source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
CCS, BECCS, etc. | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- CO2 Emissions captured at the source
- User can enter values
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | |
---|
|
| |
|
|
Carbon Feedbacks | GtCO2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Climate feedbacks refer to processes that can amplify or dampen the effects of climate change. These feedbacks are mechanisms that occur as a result of the changing climate itself and either reinforce or mitigate the initial changes caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. (source: ChatGPT)
- User can enter values
|
Additional Information |
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- CCS Carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a collection of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes before they enter the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be utilized or stored in the ground.
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
Today, CCS projects are storing almost 45 million tons of CO2 every year, which is about the amount of CO2 emissions created by 10 million passenger cars. Capture generally takes place at large stationary sources of CO2, like power plants or industrial plants that make cement, steel, and chemicals. Most current carbon capture projects use a liquid to chemically remove the CO2 before it goes out the smokestack, but several new types of capture processes are under development.
The captured CO2 gas is then compressed so it becomes liquid-like and transported to a storage site, generally through a pipeline. Ship transport is more expensive than using pipelines, but it is being considered in both Europe and Japan. Once at the storage site, the CO2 is pumped more than 2,500 feet down wells into geological formations like used-up oil and gas reservoirs, as well as formations that contain unusable, salty water. (https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/carbon-capture)
|
|
|
- Direct air capture (DAC) includes a suite of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere using chemical or physical processes
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
Direct Air Capture (DAC) is a technology designed to remove carbon dioxide (CO₂)
directly from the atmosphere to help mitigate climate change. Unlike other
methods of carbon capture, which focus on emissions from industrial sources, DAC
works by capturing CO₂ that is already in the air.
Here’s how DAC generally works:
- Air Intake: Large fans or other methods pull ambient air into a
system.
- CO₂ Capture: The air passes through a chemical solution or
solid sorbent that binds with the carbon dioxide molecules. There are two
primary types of DAC technologies:
- Liquid-based DAC: Uses chemical solvents that capture CO₂ when
the air passes through.
- Solid-based DAC: Uses solid materials or filters to absorb CO₂.
- CO₂ Release: The captured CO₂ is then isolated from the
material it is bound to, usually through heating or applying a vacuum.
- Storage or Utilization: The CO₂ is either stored underground
(in geological formations like depleted oil fields or deep saline aquifers) or
used in products like synthetic fuels or building materials.
DAC is seen as a potentially important tool for reducing atmospheric CO₂,
especially in cases where it’s not feasible to reduce emissions at the source.
While the technology is still in development, several pilot projects and
commercial operations are working to scale DAC and make it more efficient and
cost-effective. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Afforestation is the process of planting trees in an area where there were none previously, with the goal of creating a new forest or woodland. It is a key strategy in combating climate change, as trees absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, helping to reduce the overall concentration of greenhouse gases. (Source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Afforestation Works:
- Selecting Land: The first step is to identify suitable land for
planting trees. This could be land that was once forested but has been cleared
(e.g., for agriculture) or land that has never been forested.
- Choosing Species: The right species of trees are selected based
on the climate, soil type, and the purpose of the afforestation project (e.g.,
carbon sequestration, biodiversity enhancement).
- Planting Trees: The trees are planted, and in some cases, the
soil is prepared to ensure better growth conditions. This can involve removing
invasive species or improving soil quality.
- Ongoing Maintenance: Regular monitoring and care are required
to ensure the trees grow successfully, which may involve watering, controlling
pests, or protecting them from wildfires.
Benefits of Afforestation:
- Carbon Sequestration: As trees grow, they absorb and store
carbon dioxide, helping mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Biodiversity: Afforestation can restore ecosystems and create
habitats for wildlife, enhancing biodiversity.
- Soil Protection: Forests help prevent soil erosion, improve
water retention, and contribute to healthier soil by adding organic matter.
- Water Cycle Regulation: Trees play a role in the local water
cycle, influencing rainfall patterns and groundwater levels.
- Economic Benefits: Forests can provide timber, fuel, and other
resources that benefit local communities economically.
However, afforestation must be carefully planned. If done inappropriately (e.g.,
planting non-native species or on ecologically sensitive land), it can have
negative environmental impacts, such as disrupting local ecosystems or reducing
water availability for other plants and animals. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Mineralization is a process in which carbon dioxide (CO2) is chemically transformed into stable mineral compounds, such as carbonates, through natural or engineered reactions. This is a form of carbon capture and storage (CCS), aimed at mitigating climate change by permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere or industrial processes. (source: ChatGP
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Mineralization Works:
-
Capture of CO₂: CO₂ is captured either directly from the air
(via direct air capture) or from industrial emissions (e.g., power plants).
-
Reaction with Minerals: The captured CO₂ is then exposed to
naturally occurring minerals that contain metal cations (like calcium,
magnesium, or iron). These minerals, such as olivine or basalt, can chemically
react with CO₂ in the presence of water.
A common reaction might be:
CO2+CaSiO3(forsterite)→CaCO3(calcite)+SiO2(silica)
This converts CO₂ into solid carbonates (like calcium carbonate, or CaCO₃),
which are stable and non-toxic.
-
Storage: The resulting solid mineral carbonates are stable and
can be stored safely for millions of years, essentially locking away CO₂ from
the atmosphere in a permanent form.
Types of Mineralization:
-
Enhanced Weathering: This involves accelerating the natural
weathering process, where minerals in rocks slowly react with CO₂. By breaking
down rocks more quickly (often through mechanical or chemical means), the rate
at which CO₂ is captured and mineralized can be increased.
-
In situ Mineralization: This refers to the natural process of
mineralization that occurs underground. CO₂ is injected into geological
formations, such as basalt rock formations, where it reacts with the minerals
present to form carbonates.
-
Ex situ Mineralization: This is a more engineered process,
where CO₂ is captured, transported, and then reacted with minerals in a
controlled environment, typically in reactors or mines, before being stored.
Benefits of Mineralization:
- Permanent CO₂ Storage: The mineralized carbonates are stable
for millions of years, offering a long-term solution to climate change.
- Natural Process: Mineralization mimics natural processes,
making it a relatively safe and predictable way of storing carbon.
- Scalability: There is potential for scaling this process to
large volumes, as many types of minerals on Earth can react with CO₂.
- Economic Value: The byproducts, such as carbonates, can have
commercial uses (e.g., in construction materials, agriculture, or even as a
component of cement), potentially offsetting some of the costs.
Challenges:
- Speed: Natural mineralization is a slow process. Research is
ongoing to find ways to speed up the chemical reactions.
- Energy Intensity: Some methods of mineralization, especially ex
situ processes, may require significant energy inputs.
- Geological Site Availability: Suitable geological sites for in
situ mineralization may not be available everywhere, and transporting CO₂ to
these sites can be costly.
Mineralization holds great promise as a long-term, stable solution for reducing
atmospheric CO₂ levels and combating climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Agricultural soil carbon refers to the carbon stored in the soil as part of the soil organic matter (SOM), which includes plant roots, decomposing plant and animal residues, and microbial biomass. This carbon plays a critical role in maintaining soil health, fertility, and structure, and can contribute significantly to mitigating climate change if managed effectively. (source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
ypes of Agricultural Soil Carbon:
- Soil Organic Carbon (SOC): This is the carbon component of soil
organic matter, derived from plant and animal residues that have decomposed in
the soil.
- Soil Inorganic Carbon (SIC): This is carbon that is bound in
mineral forms, like carbonates (e.g., calcium carbonate), found in certain
soils.
Most carbon stored in soils is in the organic form, and it is a key factor in
determining soil health and productivity.
How Agricultural Soil Carbon Works:
Soil carbon is part of the carbon cycle, where plants capture
atmospheric CO₂ during photosynthesis and then incorporate it into their
tissues. When plants die, this carbon is transferred into the soil through root
systems or through the decomposition of organic matter. Soil organisms (like
bacteria, fungi, and earthworms) break down this organic material, which
contributes to carbon being stored in the soil.
Key processes that influence soil carbon storage include:
- Photosynthesis: Plants absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere and
convert it into organic carbon compounds.
- Decomposition: As plant residues decompose, carbon is either
released back into the atmosphere as CO₂ or retained in the soil as part of
organic matter.
- Soil Formation and Erosion: The way soil is formed or disturbed
can affect the amount of carbon stored in the soil.
Benefits of Agricultural Soil Carbon:
- Carbon Sequestration: Soils can store large amounts of carbon
over long periods, effectively acting as carbon sinks, which helps to reduce
atmospheric CO₂ and mitigate climate change.
- Soil Fertility and Productivity: Soil organic carbon is
essential for soil fertility, as it improves soil structure, water retention,
nutrient availability, and microbial activity, all of which contribute to better
crop yields.
- Resilience to Drought: Higher soil carbon content can improve
the soil's ability to retain water, making crops more resilient to drought
conditions.
- Improved Soil Structure: The organic matter in soil improves
its structure, reducing compaction and enhancing aeration, which is beneficial
for plant growth.
- Biodiversity: Healthy soils with abundant carbon tend to
support a diverse range of microorganisms, which contribute to nutrient cycling
and soil health.
Practices for Increasing Agricultural Soil Carbon:
Several sustainable agricultural practices can increase soil carbon storage,
including:
- Cover Cropping: Planting crops that cover the soil during
fallow periods can prevent erosion and increase organic matter inputs to the
soil.
- Reduced Tillage: Minimizing tillage reduces soil disturbance,
preserving soil structure and preventing the release of carbon stored in the
soil.
- Agroforestry: Integrating trees and shrubs into agricultural
landscapes increases carbon sequestration through both above-ground biomass and
soil organic carbon.
- Crop Rotation: Growing a variety of crops instead of
monocultures helps improve soil health and increase carbon retention.
- Organic Amendments: Adding organic materials like compost,
manure, or biochar can increase soil carbon levels.
- Pasture Management: Rotational grazing and improving pasture
management can enhance carbon storage in grasslands.
Challenges and Considerations:
- Soil Type and Climate: The potential for soil carbon
sequestration varies by soil type, climate, and land management practices. Some
soils are naturally more conducive to storing carbon than others.
- Soil Erosion: Erosion can deplete soil carbon by washing away
topsoil, where most organic carbon is stored.
- Long-Term Commitment: Soil carbon sequestration takes time and
requires sustained management practices over years to decades.
- Balance with Crop Production: Some practices that increase soil
carbon may reduce immediate crop yields, so farmers must balance carbon storage
with their economic needs.
Soil Carbon in the Context of Climate Change:
Agricultural soils have the potential to be a significant part of climate change
mitigation strategies. If managed effectively, they can sequester vast amounts
of carbon and help offset emissions from other sectors. However, the permanence
of carbon stored in soils is subject to management practices, land use changes,
and natural factors like climate shifts.
Overall, increasing soil carbon content is a win-win for agriculture and climate
mitigation, improving soil health and supporting sustainable farming practices
while contributing to global carbon reduction efforts. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or burned.(source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
How Biochar Is Made:
- Feedstock Selection: Biochar is made from organic materials
like crop residues, wood chips, manure, or other biomass. The type of feedstock
can influence the properties of the biochar.
- Pyrolysis: The feedstock is heated in a sealed container
(called a pyrolysis reactor) in the absence of oxygen, typically at temperatures
between 350°C and 700°C (662°F and 1292°F). This process breaks down the organic
material and results in solid biochar, along with gases and oils, which can be
captured and used as energy or in other processes.
- Cooling and Processing: The biochar is cooled, and any
remaining gases are captured for energy production. The resulting biochar can be
ground to different particle sizes depending on its intended use.
Properties of Biochar:
- High Carbon Content: Biochar is rich in carbon, often
comprising over 70% of its composition, making it a stable form of carbon
storage.
- Porous Structure: Biochar has a highly porous structure, which
increases its surface area and allows it to retain water and nutrients.
- Stability: Biochar is stable in soil for hundreds or even
thousands of years, making it an effective way to sequester carbon and reduce
atmospheric CO₂.
Benefits of Biochar:
- Carbon Sequestration: Biochar is a form of carbon
capture and storage (CCS). When it is applied to soils, it locks away
carbon for long periods, helping to mitigate climate change by removing CO₂ from
the atmosphere.
- Soil Improvement: Adding biochar to soil can enhance its
fertility by improving its structure, water retention, and nutrient-holding
capacity. This makes it particularly valuable in soils that are degraded or have
poor organic matter content.
- Enhanced Plant Growth: The porous structure of biochar helps
soil retain moisture and nutrients, which can improve plant growth, especially
in areas with drought conditions or poor soil quality.
- Soil pH Regulation: Biochar can help balance soil pH,
especially in acidic soils, making the soil more favorable for plant growth.
- Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Biochar has been shown
to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) from soils, both of
which are potent greenhouse gases.
- Waste Management: Biochar can be produced from agricultural,
forestry, or industrial waste products, providing a sustainable way to recycle
biomass that would otherwise be discarded or burned.
- Water Filtration: Due to its porous nature, biochar can be used
for water filtration, removing contaminants like heavy metals and organic
compounds from water.
Applications of Biochar:
- Agriculture: Biochar is widely used as a soil amendment to
improve soil health, fertility, and crop yields. It is especially beneficial for
soils with low organic matter or poor structure.
- Carbon Sequestration: Applied to soils, biochar serves as a
long-term carbon sink, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change.
- Waste-to-Energy: The pyrolysis process used to create biochar
also generates bio-oils and gases that can be used as renewable energy sources,
making the production of biochar part of a circular economy.
- Water Treatment: Biochar is being explored as an effective
material for filtering contaminants from water, as it can adsorb toxins and
other pollutants.
- Building Materials: Some biochars, due to their properties, are
being experimented with as an additive to construction materials like cement and
concrete, providing both environmental and practical benefits.
Challenges and Considerations:
- Energy Requirements: The pyrolysis process requires energy, and
while some of this energy can be captured and used, the overall energy balance
of biochar production depends on the technology and feedstocks used.
- Scale of Production: While biochar has significant potential,
scaling up production to a level that makes a global impact on climate change
requires overcoming logistical and economic challenges.
- Feedstock Availability: The availability and sustainability of
biomass feedstocks can limit biochar production. It’s important to ensure that
feedstocks are sourced in an environmentally responsible manner without
competing with food production or causing deforestation.
- Potential Soil Effects: While biochar can improve soil quality,
the effects can vary based on the type of soil, the specific biochar used, and
the amount applied. In some cases, improper use may have negative effects, such
as altering soil nutrient balances.
Biochar and Climate Change:
Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration
and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the
soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO₂
levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it
can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste
materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or
burned.
In summary, biochar has the potential to provide multiple environmental
benefits, from improving soil health and agricultural productivity to serving as
a long-term carbon sink that helps mitigate climate change. However, it requires
careful management and scaling to fully realize its potential.
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Oceanic removal (or ocean carbon removal - mCDR)) refers to strategies and technologies aimed at removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it in the ocean. The ocean is a major carbon sink, absorbing about 25% of global CO2 emissions. However, oceanic removal focuses on enhancing this natural process or directly removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in ocean ecosystems or geological formations beneath the ocean. (source: ChatGPT)
- Disabled for now
|
Additional Information |
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Anthropogenic (human caused) CO2 emissions, including those from the burning of fossil fuels, manufacturing cement, and land use changes
- User can enter values
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | | This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to other 2050 scenarios. |
---|
|
| |
|
|
|
- Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
- User can enter values
|
|
- CO2 Emissions captured at the source
- User can enter values
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | |
---|
|
| |
|
|
- Total Anthro CO2
- Calcuated: The sum of all CO2 emissions and removals
|
|
- Climate feedbacks refer to processes that can amplify or dampen the effects of climate change. These feedbacks are mechanisms that occur as a result of the changing climate itself and either reinforce or mitigate the initial changes caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. (source: ChatGPT)
- User can enter values
|
Additional Information |
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- Adjustment to CO2 so that the calculated "CO2 PPM" matches the scenario's CO2 PPM value when the scenario's data is first loaded
- Only calcuated when the data for the scenario includes the CO2 PPM
|
|
- Total Net CO2
- Calcuated: The sum of all CO2 emissions and removals
|
|
- Cumulative Anthropogenic CO2 emissions after the year 2024
- Calcuated: Cumulative CO2 removed after the year 2024
|
|
- Cumulative FeedbackCO2 emissions after the year 2024
- Calcuated: Cumulative Feedback CO2 emissions after the year 2024
|
|
- Cumulative Carbon Removed after the year 2024
- Calcuated: Anthropogenic CO2 emissions after the year 2024
|
|
- Cumulative CO2 emissions after the year 2024
- Calcuated: Cumulative CO2 emissions after the year 2024
|
|
- The airborne fraction (AF) refers to the portion of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere that remains in the atmosphere, rather than being absorbed by natural carbon sinks such as oceans, forests, and soils. In simpler terms, it is the fraction of CO2 emissions that do not get sequestered by these natural systems and therefore contribute to the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, which is a primary driver of climate change. (source:ChatGPT) (Note: a value is not displayed if 'total net CO2 emissions are zero or less)
- Calcuated: CO2 to atmosphere/total net CO2
|
Additional Information |
Formula: Airborne Fraction = CO2 Added to Atmpshere/Total CO2 Emissions
Key Points:
- The airborne fraction represents the ratio of the CO₂ that stays in the
atmosphere after emission.
- It is influenced by the ability of carbon sinks (such as
forests, oceans, and soils) to absorb CO₂. If carbon sinks are efficient, the
airborne fraction will be lower because a greater proportion of the emitted CO₂
will be absorbed.
- Over time, the airborne fraction can change based on factors like:
- Land use and forest management practices.
- Ocean health, particularly how much CO₂ the oceans can absorb.
- Climate and weather patterns, which can influence carbon sink
efficiency.
Historical Trends:
- Historically, the airborne fraction has increased over time. This means that a
growing proportion of the CO₂ emissions caused by human activities (such as
burning fossil fuels) is staying in the atmosphere, contributing to the rise in
global temperatures.
- For example, between 1959 and 2019, the airborne fraction has risen from about
40% to around 45% of the total CO₂ emissions, indicating that natural carbon
sinks (e.g., forests, oceans) have not been able to absorb as much CO₂ as they
did in the past, partly due to factors like deforestation and ocean
acidification.
Factors Influencing the Airborne Fraction:
-
Capacity of Carbon Sinks:
- The Earth’s natural systems, like forests, soil, and oceans, act as
carbon sinks that absorb a significant amount of the emitted CO₂.
However, their capacity to absorb CO₂ can vary over time.
- Ocean acidification and deforestation are two
significant factors that can reduce the efficiency of these carbon sinks,
leading to a higher airborne fraction.
- Forest degradation and reduced vegetation also lower the
capacity for CO₂ uptake.
-
Emissions Trends:
- The rate of CO₂ emissions has increased sharply, particularly
since the industrial revolution. Higher emissions mean that, even if sinks
remain stable, the absolute amount of CO₂ that stays in the atmosphere
increases.
-
Climate Change Feedbacks:
- Warming temperatures may reduce the efficiency of natural
carbon sinks. For example, warmer oceans are less efficient at absorbing CO₂,
and warmer temperatures can increase the release of CO₂ from soils and
permafrost.
- Forest fires, droughts, and other extreme
weather events can disrupt the ability of ecosystems to absorb CO₂.
Why the Airborne Fraction Matters:
- Climate Change Impact: The airborne fraction is a critical
metric for understanding how much of human CO₂ emissions are contributing to the
greenhouse effect and, by extension, to climate change. As the airborne fraction
increases, more CO₂ stays in the atmosphere, leading to faster global warming.
- Policy and Mitigation: Knowing the airborne fraction helps
inform climate policy and mitigation strategies. If the airborne fraction is
high, there may be a greater need for carbon removal technologies
(e.g., afforestation, direct air capture) to offset emissions that are not being
absorbed by natural sinks.
- Carbon Budget: The concept of a carbon budget
is closely related to the airborne fraction. It refers to the total amount of
CO₂ that can be emitted into the atmosphere before global temperature rises
beyond a certain threshold, typically 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
As the airborne fraction increases, it reduces the amount of CO₂ that can be
emitted before exceeding these temperature limits.
Conclusion:
The airborne fraction is a vital measure of the effectiveness
of Earth’s natural carbon sinks in absorbing the CO₂ the humans emit. As this fraction
increases, it signals that more of our emissions are staying in the atmosphere,
contributing to the intensification of climate change. Monitoring and reducing
the airborne fraction by enhancing carbon sinks and adopting mitigation
strategies is crucial for limiting global warming and stabilizing the climate.
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- CO2 emissions absorbed by the land and oceanic sinks. Ocean and land sinks refer to natural processes by which the Earth's oceans and terrestrial ecosystems (such as forests, soils, and wetlands) absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. These carbon sinks are crucial in regulating the Earth's climate, as they help mitigate the impact of human CO2 emissions, preventing even higher levels of atmospheric CO2 that would otherwise accelerate climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
- Calcuated: total net CO2 - CO2 to atmosphere
|
Additional Information |
1. Ocean Sinks:
Oceans are one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth, absorbing approximately
25-30% of human-made CO₂ emissions each year.
How the Ocean Absorbs CO₂:
- Physical Pump (Solubility Pump):
- CO₂ dissolves directly into the surface waters of the ocean. As cold water
absorbs CO₂ more efficiently, regions like the polar seas are critical for this
process.
- Once dissolved in the surface ocean, the CO₂ is transported by ocean currents to
deeper layers. This deep ocean storage can last for centuries to millennia,
sequestering CO₂ from the atmosphere for long periods.
- Biological Pump:
- Phytoplankton, tiny plant-like organisms in the ocean, absorb CO₂ from the water
for photosynthesis. When these organisms die, they sink to the ocean floor,
effectively transferring the carbon to deep ocean waters where it can remain for
long periods.
- This process plays a key role in transferring carbon from the surface ocean to
the deep ocean, where it can be sequestered.
- Coastal and Marine Ecosystems:
- Blue Carbon: Coastal ecosystems like mangroves,
salt marshes, and seagrasses are highly
efficient at storing carbon. These areas absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere and
store it in plant biomass and sediment. These ecosystems are especially
important in carbon sequestration due to their high productivity and ability to
trap carbon in waterlogged, low-oxygen conditions that prevent decomposition.
- Coral Reefs: While coral reefs themselves are not large carbon
sinks, they provide a habitat for marine life that plays a role in the marine
carbon cycle.
Challenges and Limitations:
- Ocean Acidification: Increased CO₂ levels in the atmosphere
lead to higher concentrations of dissolved CO₂ in the ocean, which lowers the
ocean’s pH and leads to ocean acidification. This can affect
marine life, particularly organisms that rely on calcium carbonate (like corals
and shellfish), and may reduce the ocean’s ability to absorb more CO₂ over time.
- Reduced Absorption Capacity: Warming of the oceans is slowing
down the carbon absorption capacity. Warmer waters are less efficient at
dissolving CO₂, meaning that as the ocean warms, it may absorb less carbon.
- Overfishing and Ecosystem Damage: Human activity, including
overfishing and habitat destruction, can damage key oceanic ecosystems (like
coral reefs and mangroves), reducing their ability to sequester carbon.
2. Land Sinks:
Land-based carbon sinks include forests, grasslands, soils, and wetlands. These
systems absorb and store significant amounts of carbon through natural processes
like photosynthesis, soil organic matter formation, and plant growth.
How Land Sinks Absorb CO₂:
-
Forests:
- Photosynthesis: Trees and other vegetation absorb CO₂ during
photosynthesis, using it to grow and form biomass (e.g., leaves, branches,
trunks).
- Forests act as large carbon sinks because they cover vast areas of land and have
high carbon-storing capacity, especially in temperate and tropical regions.
- Soil Carbon: Forests also store carbon in the soil, in the form
of decomposed organic matter like dead plants and animals. Soils can hold carbon
for hundreds to thousands of years.
-
Soils:
- Soils are a crucial terrestrial carbon sink, storing more carbon than the
atmosphere and plants combined. Carbon is stored in soil as organic matter,
which results from decaying plants and animals.
- Soil Carbon Sequestration: Sustainable land management
practices, such as no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry, can
enhance the ability of soils to capture and retain carbon.
-
Wetlands:
- Wetlands, including peatlands, mangroves, and marshes, are highly effective at
storing carbon. Waterlogged conditions slow down decomposition, which allows
carbon to accumulate in the form of peat or other organic matter.
- Wetlands are considered blue carbon ecosystems when located
along coastlines (e.g., mangroves, salt marshes).
-
Grasslands and Savannahs:
- Grasslands also sequester carbon through plant growth and soil storage. While
not as significant as forests, they still play an important role in the global
carbon cycle.
Challenges and Limitations:
- Deforestation and Land-Use Change: Deforestation, land clearing
for agriculture, and urbanization release stored carbon back into the
atmosphere. When forests are removed, not only is their carbon storage capacity
lost, but the carbon they have stored in their biomass and soil is often
released.
- Soil Degradation: Practices such as intensive farming,
overgrazing, and deforestation degrade the soil, reducing its carbon storage
potential. Soil erosion and loss of organic matter can decrease its ability to
sequester carbon.
- Climate Change Impacts: Changes in temperature and
precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect the carbon sequestration
capacity of land ecosystems. For example, droughts, fires, and pests can reduce
the carbon storage potential of forests and soils. In some cases, warming soils
may release more CO₂ (a process known as soil respiration),
counteracting the carbon storage benefits.
- Forest Fires: Increased frequency and intensity of forest fires
due to climate change lead to carbon emissions. Forest fires release large
amounts of CO₂ stored in trees and soil into the atmosphere, contributing to a
feedback loop that accelerates warming.
Significance of Ocean and Land Sinks:
- Climate Mitigation: Ocean and land sinks play a key role in
mitigating climate change by absorbing about half of human-made CO₂ emissions
each year. Protecting and enhancing these natural sinks is a critical strategy
for combating global warming.
- Carbon Neutrality and Negative Emissions: Effective use of
carbon sinks is essential for achieving carbon neutrality
(balancing CO₂ emissions with carbon removals) and potentially reaching
negative emissions (removing more CO₂ from the atmosphere than is
emitted).
Future Outlook and Management:
- Enhancing Sinks: Strategies like afforestation, reforestation,
and improved land management (such as agroforestry and sustainable agriculture)
can increase carbon sequestration in land ecosystems. Additionally, restoring
damaged coastal ecosystems like mangroves and salt marshes can enhance blue
carbon storage in oceans.
- Protection of Sinks: Protecting existing forests, wetlands, and
other ecosystems from degradation is equally crucial. This includes enforcing
policies to reduce deforestation, prevent land-use change, and protect marine
ecosystems from damage.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): While not strictly a "natural
sink," CCS technologies are being developed to artificially capture and store
carbon from the atmosphere or industrial sources, potentially augmenting both
ocean and land-based carbon sequestration efforts.
Conclusion:
Ocean and land sinks are vital in helping to moderate the impacts of climate
change by absorbing and storing large amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere.
Protecting and enhancing the capacity of these sinks is essential to any climate
strategy aimed at limiting global warming. However, their effectiveness is
limited by factors like land-use change, ocean acidification, and the impacts of
climate change on ecosystems. (source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
- CO2 emissions added to the atmosphere
- Calculated: based on year, atmospjeric PPM and emissions (details to be added later)
|
Additional Information |
Formula for CO2 Emissions to the Atmosphere
Deriving a formula that relates the CO2 that ends up in the atmosphere to net CO2 emissions
- 1. Used En-ROADs to create three scenarios and copied the Net CO2 Emissions and CO2 PPM data to
a spreadsheet
- 2. The first scenario was for a 1.4°C temperature increase: https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=24.11.0&p1=100&p7=85&p10=5&p16=-0.05&p23=25&p30=-0.07&p35=2&p39=0&p47=5&p50=5&p373=50&p375=50&p63=9&p235=0.5&p60=96&p417=100&p61=100&p67=100
- 3. This scenario was modified slightly to produce two additional scenarios - one with a 1.6°C increase and another with a 1.8°C increase
- 4. The "CO2 Added to Atmosphere" was calculated and graphed as "CO2 to Atmosphere vs CO2 Emissions"
- 5. A "subset" of this data was then used to create a polynomial function that reasonably approximated this graph (see "Coefficients for polynomial function" below)
The formula is: CO2 added to the atmosphere = 0.009993255 * Net CO2 Emissions * Net CO2 Emissions + 0.252616086 * Net CO2 Emissions - 10.6147928
Click here to download a spreadsheet with the data used to create the formula
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
- The amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 'parts per million' (PPM)
- Calculated: CO2 To Atmosph/7.81
|
|
- The atmospheric concentration of CO2 from the origonal scenrio
- From the original scenario
|
|
- The atmospheric concentration of CO2
- Calculated: Previous years's PPM +PPM Added to the atmosphere
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | |
---|
|
| |
|
|
CH4 | W/m-2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- The radiative forcing of CH4 (methane). Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the primary component of natural gas. It is colorless, odorless, and highly flammable. While methane is less abundant than carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, it has a much higher global warming potential (GWP) over a short time frame, making it a critical factor in global climate change.(source: ChatGPT)
- User can enter values; if no values entered then values based on 'aggressiveness' of mitigation selection
This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of values from some of the SSPs. | | This graph compares the projected value (heavy black line) to the range of possible mitigation 'aggressivenesses'. | |
---|
|
| |
| |
|
Additional Information |
Key Characteristics of Methane (CH₄):
- Chemical Formula: CH₄ consists of one carbon atom bonded to
four hydrogen atoms.
- Physical Properties: Methane is lighter than air and is the
simplest and most abundant of the alkanes (a type of hydrocarbon).
- Sources: Methane is released naturally and anthropogenically
(human-caused). Its sources include:
- Natural Sources:
- Wetlands (such as peatlands and swamps), where organic matter decays
anaerobically (without oxygen).
- Termites and other organisms involved in the decomposition of organic matter.
- Oceans and freshwater bodies, where microorganisms break down organic material
in oxygen-deprived environments.
- Anthropogenic (Human-Caused) Sources:
- Fossil fuel extraction: Methane is released during the
extraction, processing, and transportation of coal, oil, and natural gas.
- Agriculture: Livestock, especially ruminants like cattle,
produce methane during digestion through a process called enteric
fermentation. Rice paddies also emit methane due to the anaerobic
conditions in flooded fields.
- Landfills: Decomposing organic waste in landfills produces
methane.
- Wastewater treatment: Methane is released during the treatment
of wastewater, especially in anaerobic conditions.
- Biomass burning: The incomplete combustion of organic materials
can result in methane emissions.
Global Warming Potential of CH₄:
-
High Global Warming Potential (GWP): While methane is present
in much lower concentrations than CO₂, it is significantly more effective at
trapping heat in the atmosphere. Over a 20-year period, methane has a
GWP of around 84-87 times that of CO₂, and over a 100-year period, its
GWP is approximately 28-36 times that of CO₂. This means that,
molecule for molecule, methane is far more potent at warming the planet than
CO₂, especially in the short term.
-
Atmospheric Lifetime: Methane has a relatively short
atmospheric lifetime of about 12 years, compared to CO₂'s much
longer lifespan (hundreds to thousands of years). This makes reducing methane
emissions an effective way to achieve near-term climate benefits.
Environmental Impact of Methane (CH₄):
- Contribution to Climate Change:
- Methane is a significant greenhouse gas and a major contributor to
global warming. Although it stays in the atmosphere for a shorter time
than CO₂, its potency means it has a large impact on the climate system,
especially in the near term.
- Methane contributes to the formation of tropospheric ozone, a
potent greenhouse gas that further exacerbates climate change.
- Methane as a Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP):
- Methane is classified as a short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP)
because of its short atmospheric lifetime. Reducing methane emissions is
considered one of the most effective strategies for limiting near-term warming.
Mitigation of Methane Emissions:
Efforts to reduce methane emissions are critical in addressing both short-term
and long-term climate change. Key strategies include:
-
Reducing Fossil Fuel Emissions:
- Leak Detection and Repair: Preventing methane leaks during the
extraction, processing, and transportation of natural gas is crucial.
Technologies like infrared cameras and sensors can help detect methane leaks.
- Flare or Capture Methane: Instead of flaring methane (burning
it off), capturing and utilizing methane for energy (e.g., methane
recovery from landfills or wastewater treatment plants) can reduce its
environmental impact.
-
Agricultural Mitigation:
- Improving Livestock Management: Methane emissions from ruminant
animals can be reduced through dietary changes (such as feeding livestock more
efficiently) or through the use of additives that reduce methane production
during digestion.
- Rice Paddy Management: Reducing the amount of water used in
rice paddies (which reduces anaerobic conditions) and implementing better
farming practices can lower methane emissions from rice cultivation.
-
Waste Management:
- Landfill Gas Capture: Methane can be captured from landfills
through gas collection systems and used as an energy source,
thus preventing it from escaping into the atmosphere.
- Wastewater Treatment: Methane emissions from wastewater
treatment facilities can be reduced by optimizing treatment processes or
capturing the methane for energy generation.
-
Policy and Regulation:
- Governments and international organizations are increasingly adopting
regulations aimed at reducing methane emissions. This includes commitments under
agreements like the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce
methane emissions by 30% by 2030 (from 2020 levels).
- The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol
also includes provisions for controlling methane emissions associated with
refrigeration and air conditioning systems.
Future Outlook:
- Increasing Focus on Methane Reduction: As the understanding of
methane's contribution to climate change grows, there is increasing emphasis on
reducing methane emissions, especially as it is one of the most cost-effective
strategies for mitigating near-term warming.
- Technology Development: New technologies are emerging to
capture methane more efficiently, both from industrial sources and in the
agricultural sector. Methane digesters, for example, can
capture methane from manure and convert it into biogas, which can then be used
for energy.
- Shifting to Renewable Energy: Reducing reliance on fossil fuels
and transitioning to renewable energy sources like wind, solar,
and hydroelectric power will help decrease methane emissions, particularly those
from the natural gas industry.
Conclusion:
Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a significant role in global
warming, particularly in the short term. While methane emissions come from both
natural and human sources, the latter (especially fossil fuel extraction,
agriculture, and waste management) present the largest opportunities for
mitigation. Reducing methane emissions is a key strategy for addressing climate
change and limiting global warming, with significant benefits for both
short-term and long-term climate goals. Efforts to reduce methane emissions are
becoming a priority in international climate policy and industry practices.
(source: ChatGPT)
|
|
|
N2O | W/m-2 | |
|
|
|
|
| | | | |
|
|
|